AI adoption follows the usual pattern

McKinsey’s latest research shows 80% of companies aren’t seeing meaningful returns from their AI investments while only 17% are seeing real results.

But here’s what I find interesting about that number.

Most major technologies follow this adoption curve: 2-3 years of experimentation and learning followed by gradual scaling and measurable returns in years 3-7.

GenAI is actually moving faster than typical but the timeline for measurable enterprise-wide returns appears totally consistent with other major technology shifts.

The 80% figure isn’t a GenAI problem. It’s the normal pattern for transformative technologies.

We’ve seen this before.

ERP systems took 2-5 years to show significant ROI. Cloud computing took years before most companies saw meaningful returns.

GenAI has been widely available for just 2 years.

If you’re struggling to show enterprise-wide returns from AI right now, you’re not behind schedule.

You’re right on time.